The Premier League continues to thrill football fans across England and beyond, whether it’s the clubs fighting for the title or trying to qualify for Europe. It’s also where you’ll find the biggest goal hauls from top-flight strikers like Erling Haaland.
But how do you make reliable premier league predictions? Here are some tips that will increase your chances of success.
Table of Contents
1. Know The Team’s Form
When it comes to premier league predictions knowing a team’s current form is a key element. This will give you an indication of how they are performing and whether they are in good shape or not. However, it is important to remember that a team’s form can change depending on several factors such as the availability of certain players due to international duty, injuries and even fatigue.
When assessing a team’s form be sure to look at their recent home and away form as well as their record against teams in their current division. The latter will give you an idea of how well a team is playing and also help you decide whether they have a chance to beat their opponent.
Liverpool are the clear form leaders in the Premier League with their unbeaten run stretching back eight games. They have scored more goals than expected while conceding less and their defensive statistics have improved of late. In contrast, West Ham are struggling to get on the scoresheet and their xG figure of 2.89 indicates they will struggle to win this match.
Tottenham’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League appear to have dipped but they still have a favourable run-in. They play Aston Villa, West Ham, Wolves and Bournemouth over the final weeks of the season with a trip to Brighton thrown in there too.
Manchester United’s current form is good enough for them to avoid relegation despite their slow start to the season. They have lost just once in their last four matches and have an excellent record against teams in the bottom half of the table. Their attacking process is improving under new manager Jose Mourinho and a home game against struggling Fulham should prove a tough test for them. The home side have a good record against teams in the top six this season and with their attack performing well, they can easily outscore the hosts at St Mary’s. The home side are also in decent form and their xG of 4.89 should mean they can pick up another three points on the road.
2. Analyse The Key Statistics
The last Premier League campaign was a real eye-opener, with teams zigzagging all over the place as they searched for a route to the top four. Chelsea and Arsenal both started well, but both suffered dramatic collapses, while Brighton, Aston Villa, and Brentford spent time as hot-button underdogs in the race to the title. The 2023-2024 season has been a little more predictable so far, with Manchester City a clear favorite to win the trophy for the second time in three seasons.
There are a couple of key statistics that will affect how these predictions play out. For one, Tottenham have conceded a league-high 13 goals in the opening 15 minutes of games, with more than half of these coming in their most recent three matches. Against a team that tends to be quick out of the blocks, this could prove to be an issue for the hosts, especially as they have scored just 10 goals in their last six Premier League matches.
Another big statistic to look out for is the number of goals scored in a game. The over/under 2.5 goal market is a popular choice for many punters, and while it might not always come true (who ever scored a goal with less than two minutes to go?), it can be a profitable betting option.
The final set of fixtures this weekend sees the conclusion of two cross-London derbies, with Spurs expected to put a stop to Brentford’s unbeaten run in Premier League London games. On the other hand, West Ham might be happy to put a halt to Crystal Palace’s hopes of European qualification, and they will need a big performance from their players at the Emirates if they are going to do so.
Elsewhere, Leeds United will be hoping that a return to Big Sam will kickstart their season and avoid the drop, and they have a small chance of doing so against Everton at Goodison Park. They’ve lost their last seven away games in the Premier League, and that makes them an obvious target for the supercomputer, which has them down as one of the three favourites to go down this year.
3. Check The Absences Of The Key Players
Obviously, a team’s top players are key in the premier league predictions and without them, a side will struggle to win. This is why it’s important to look at how many of a team’s star players are out of action on a particular matchday. If a player is injured or suspended, their absence will be reflected in the bookmakers’ odds and this may affect the final result of the game.
When looking at the Premier League betting tips for a specific game, you should also pay attention to how many goals are predicted to be scored. If a lot of goals are expected, it may be worth betting on the Over 2.5 goal market. This means that both teams will score at least three goals between them during the match, so it’s a good option for those who are looking to back a goal-fest.
It’s not surprising that some of last season’s promoted sides are struggling to adjust to the Premier League this term. Burnley have a number of big questions to answer over their loan players and transfer market, while Sheffield United and Luton Town are both struggling for consistency. However, it’s also difficult to project any of them for relegation just yet.
That’s because they have some of the division’s better managers in their ranks and should be able to improve as the season progresses. It’s just a matter of time before they find their groove, which should make them a much more competitive side.
Despite their slow start, Leeds are still favourites to survive and the supercomputer sees them defeating Bournemouth (37.1%) at Elland Road on Sunday to keep them out of the relegation zone. The Whites have won just nine of their 30 Premier League games played on a Sunday, but they are playing with the confidence of having survived a relegation battle last season thanks to a late-day reprieve.
4. Look At The Venues
Whether you’re placing your EPL bets online or at the bookmakers, it’s important to take the time to look at all of the options. It’s also a good idea to check the venue and weather conditions of each game, as these can have a significant impact on the results of your bet.
The Premier League is renowned for being one of the most competitive leagues around and there are always surprises along the way. That’s why it’s worth keeping an eye on the latest betting odds, as they can change rapidly. Using these tips can help you make your Premier League predictions more accurate and ensure that you’re getting the best odds available.
Leading at Christmas is usually a good sign, and 13 of the last 18 teams to do so have gone on to win the title. However, Arsenal’s current lead of 74 points is unlikely to hold up, with the supercomputer giving them just 22.4% chance of clinching the trophy this season.
A win against Brentford (54.9%) would give the Gunners some breathing room, although they’re still facing a massive task to reach the top four. Nevertheless, it’s hard to see them not beating the Bees at home given their current form and the fact that they’ve never lost against them in the league before.
Arsenal’s other game this weekend is against Newcastle (31.4%), and it could be a crucial match for both sides. Mikel Arteta’s side have struggled away from home recently, winning just three of their previous 14 on the road (D2 L1). In contrast, the hosts are on the verge of relegation and will be desperate for a result to keep their slim hopes of survival alive.
Join host Gordon Watson and EV sportsbetting expert Mark O’Haire this week for all the best Premier League picks, predictions, and stats to help you place your bets. Whether you’re looking to bet on the next big game or want to know which team is the safest pick for your money, O’Haire has it covered with his insider perspectives and professional betting analysis.
Conclusion:
Predicting Premier League outcomes is a challenging task due to the unpredictable nature of sports, the ever-changing dynamics within football teams, and the competitive nature of the league itself. While statistical models, expert opinions, and historical data can provide valuable insights, there are always unexpected results and upsets that can occur during a season. Ultimately, football is a sport where anything can happen, making it exciting and captivating for fans worldwide.
FAQs:
- Can statistical models accurately predict Premier League outcomes? Statistical models can provide valuable insights and probabilities based on historical data and team performances. However, due to the unpredictable nature of sports and the multitude of factors that can influence a match, no model can guarantee absolute accuracy in predicting Premier League outcomes. The models are just tools to assist in making informed predictions, and surprises are part of the charm of football.
- What factors contribute to the unpredictability of the Premier League? Several factors contribute to the Premier League’s unpredictability. These include injuries to key players, tactical changes made by managers, team morale and chemistry, weather conditions during matches, referee decisions, and even luck on the day of the game. Additionally, the intense competition between teams, where even the underdogs can cause upsets, adds to the league’s excitement and uncertainty. The mix of these variables makes it challenging to forecast outcomes with certainty.
